03. The final word on Ferrari leaving F1 and entering sports car racing!

We all know Ferrari is posturing against the "powers that be" due to the new budget cap and two-tiered competition structure. Will they actually leave F1? Is this for real? I say this: why not leave a two-tiered race series and join a four-tiered series!!!

Here is the Serpent's analysis on the topic...

Scenario 1: Ferrari gives in to the rules of F1 (likely with F1 raising the level of the cap by 20 or 30%). Ferrari still saves money. Realistically, most of this money will immediately go to offsetting losses secondary to the bad economy. However, when the economy picks up... some of this saved money may go towards LMP1 efforts in the LMS, and hopefully ALMS. 2011 season would be a good bet.

Should they make their interest in joining known, expect regulations to be changed to make Ferrari feel at home. Good news is that Porsche and numerous other reputable manufacturers will be in tow. It will be 98' and 99' all over again.

Scenario 2: Ferrari splits F1 after this year. They put their money into a new open wheel racing series. I can't put a positive twist on this one as it will take most of their current F1 budget, maybe more to help start the new series. I really can't see this being viable unless teams leave F1 en mass. Not going to happen from the looks of it, especially in these poor economic times. Too much work to start a high class series from nothing.

Scenario 3: Ferrari splits F1 and goes back to Sports cars with LMP1 entries. Big budget savings here (driver salaries alone would be HUGE savings... mind you there would be contracts to buy out I am sure). I suspect they would run in both the LMS and ALMS. Might even become a title sponsor. Don't expect to see them in full time until 2011. However, they might do a few races in late 2010 for shakedown. If they sink in big money into the series, expect them to write the rules, and expect other major manufacturers to be joining the series in full force. Why? Because without Ferrari, F1 will lose a respectable amount of steam and more of the big names will leave F1... and likely follow Ferrari.

Sports car Racing will enter a new era of popularity and increased exposure. With that will come many changes that will make it far more viewer friendly and marketable. Fear not however, such radical changes would give the Cassandra curmudgeons plenty to complain about...

... moreover, such a move by Ferrari would hit F1 in the pocketbook,forcing F1 to bow to the demands of Ferrari in future seasons. Ferrari would again be allowed to write the rulebook in F1... and would be back in F1 by 2012 or 2013. Oh yeah, the other high prestige teams would also return in tow. Good news is that privateer teams would continue to run some of the developed prototypes for a year or two at most. Then we would be back at square 1... F1 on top and endurance racing entering a void. The trick would be to make the best of the increased exposure in the Ferrari boom year (or two) and try to hold the momentum when they go.

I vote for Scenario 1.

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